'Twas the night before Christmas....

Yes, the friendlies are over.  No more Pau Gasol in street clothes (hopefully). It is time to get down to business for the Memphis Grizzlies.  The 2007-08 opens with most of the fan base excited for what could be a bright beginning to a championship future. It is time for the Grizzlies to go from NBA stepchild to favorite son.  I am ready for what is about to be a glorious beginning.  Remember, the road to championship for the teams not lucky enough to draft a ready made superstar is a marathon not a sprint.  This season is our first steps toward the Larry O'Brien Championship trophy and although we may stumble a bit on the way...our future is very bright.

                  



Although the Memphis Grizzlies picked up the pace offensively under interim coach Tony Barone Sr., new coach Mark Iavaroni will bring a more disciplined offensive scheme to the team and an emphasis on defense. Point Guard The Grizzlies also used the #4 draft pick to bring in a quarterback to lead the new offense.  Combined with the return to health of veteran Damon Stoudamire and fan favorite Kyle Lowry, the point guard position seems to be on lock for the immediate future.  Shooting Guard Mike Miller enjoyed a breakout season in the midst of the horror of last year and capped it off with an invitation to Team USA.  There were whispers that Miller was not happy in Memphis but nothing concrete surfaced. Casey Jacobsen and FOP (friend of Pau) Juan Carlos Navarro were brought for their range and steady, experienced outside shots.  They will serve as the primary backups on the wings. Small Forward  Rudy Gay was slightly more consistent this preseason and looked like his overall game was improved.  He will be the small forward this season except when he is playing power forward.  Look for Gay to be on the court close to 40 minutes a night and his numbers should be eye popping across the board.  Although he sometimes drifts mentally defensively, he has shown the ability to be a shutdown defender due to his athleticism and length.  He will show vast improvement. Power Forward The Meal Ticket Pau Gasol is coming off his best season in the NBA.  He quietly put up very big numbers but was overlooked due to his late start and the Grizzlies horrible record.  This season he will not fly under the radar.  Look for Gasol to finally become an official member of the 20 and 10 club which will change his profile in the league. The primary backup at PF will be Gay but Hakim Warrick also can perform decently when given minutes. Center This was supposed to be Darko's time to shine.  However, a funny thing happened on the way to destiny.  The oft maligned Stromile Swift decided to come to camp ready to play.  Swift beat out the inconsistent Milicic and seemed to finally get it.  However, as a Grizzlies fan, I will wait 20-30 games before I openly declare Stromile Swift a new man.

          

The problems for the Grizz in 2007-08 are the same problems they have had for the life of the franchise.  They a polished, physical interior presence and they do not have that cold blooded perimeter scorer the elite teams seem to have on their roster.  The Grizz are hopeful that Darko Milicic and Rudy Gay can fill those roles eventually but judging from the preseason, the Grizzlies will continue to struggle against big, physical teams.  The Grizzlies will also struggle to finish close games with their poor free throw shooting, inability to finish off defensive possessions with rebounds, and lack of perimeter closer.  At times the Grizzlies collection of three point shooter will make them seem unbeatable but they will need their point guards to constantly break down defenders on the perimeter to create open looks for the bombers.  Another problem for the Grizzlies will be Damon Stoudamire starting at point guard.  Mighty Mouse struggles to get past defenders off the dribble or apply defensive pressure on the ball.  The Grizz simply do not have the interior defenders capable of with standing constant penetration and this could lead to a lot of early foul trouble. 

                                               

My one bone to pick with GM Chris Wallace and rookie coach Mark Iavaroni is their rhetoric regarding defense but having a starting lineup with 3 average to poor defenders and another 3 poor defenders (JCN, CJ, Hak) in the rotation.  At some point, if you want to be a good defensive team, you have to have good defenders getting most of the minutes.  I think until they either bring in some good defenders or acquire a truly special offensive talent, this team will struggle.

                                           

The Memphis Grizzlies will struggle to be a .500 team in the 2007-08 season due to youth and lack of personnel.  I think the high water mark for this team as is will be 40 wins and an outside chance at the 8th seed.  However, I am a + or - 5 games kind of guy so my prediction for the 2007-08 Memphis Grizzlies is 35-47.  Hopefully, this is the season we will get lucky in the lottery.